trial and error

What the lay man(woman) calls "trial and error", a scientist as in an economist or mathematician or physicist would call "statistically".

Both accomodate 'probablity'; the chances of success and failure are more or less equal, which is why it is called 'trial and error'.
If by chance you can be successful, and so you try by trial and error.

But a scientist though he/she would mean "trial & error" will prefer to render the same as 'statistically' simply because there is sometimes an erudition elicited to understand the banal.

investing on hope

Our experiences are closely tied to what we expect.
Our expectations are based on what or how much of anything we are willing to invest.

Getting less than you expect = unhappiness.
Getting more than you expect = happiness.

Which is why it is said "Hope deferred makes the heart sick."
Another way of saying this is; if our expectations are not met, we feel discontent.

The cue here to avoid the dejection or discontent is not to elicit an underexpectation, which does save us unnecessary grief, but rather to render a standard or lead one to expect the standard and then overperform.

It is easier thought than done in real-life.

But we do see plenty of the standard around us.

The low frill airline is a delivery of the standard.
We pay less and we don't need to expect exemplary service, but once in a while when they do provide exemplemary service it does get us impressed.

its all about the numbers

How much do you count politically?

Frankly, our value in politics is about the value of the vote.
Assuming that we are just the normal John Doe or Jane Doe, that single vote pretty much amounts to nothing.

I can't think of any elections that were swayed for the lack or supply of one vote.

So we have 2 options:
1. We vote thinking that maybe we are making a difference, ...highly unlikely mate...

2. We don't vote ....which needless to say still does not make any difference.

So, what do we do, well actually the answer to this question is kind of tangential.

1. Make the vote get valued higher. For one get rich(which is not easy), political parties need generous donations, for that matter you don't need allegiance here, money talks buddy, just be non-aligned and make political contributions to the party in power.

It's completely upto you whether you vote or not, any which way if you really look at it, the opponent and ruling party are aligned to your contributions so hey you get to eat the cake, right.

2. Get aligned to numbers. Politics is all about numbers.
If you can get a band of people aligned to a common interest, sheer numbers can get your vote valued higher.

Intersting to note here, for the first time in Kerala, the Church is aligning itself politically. At least they seem to be verbal about encouraging the members to vote for a particular political party.

Politics and Business probably have this 'number' dimension as a common factor.

You get a better deal on just numbers in Business.
eg: if your mobile phone is from the company; the tariffs are lower than a one you hold in your personal capacity.

Apartment blocks when negotiating with the cable company availed better cable TV tariffs than as individual apartment owners.

Destabilising monopolies

I guess it is IT which seems to have the fastest product cycle. Products come, products go & new ones are born every day and for these new borns there are many that are turned obsolete.

Ribbit seems to have joined the Android bandwagon.
However they seem to be talking of application software that is platform independent.
They are providing their API to developers to come up with ergonomic APIs for mobilephone users.

Well I think for one, Windows Mobile, RIM and Symbian are having challenges thrown at them much sooner. This could mean 1 of 2 things; in the future we are going to have phones that are platform independent or there will be more than a dozen platforms to choose from.

My bet is on the former - that is we are going to be platform independent or open source, as not many users would be savy on multiple platforms.

What the google and ribbit folks are trying to do is pretty strategic.

These companies see a convergence between the phone, laptop and office applications.
It has to an extent already taken place, we call it the smartphone.
At present the dominant operating system on a smartphone is RIM or Symbian or Windows Mobile. Apple has its iphone based on the OSX.

However, if Ribbit and Android are successful in coming up with open source API for mobilephones, then not only will it challenge the mobile OS but will shake the Windows OS dominance in the market.
If it does challenge Windows OS, it won't be long before Intel gets challenged on the hardware front.

The funny thing is, the challenge for Microsoft is not really from an alterante OS(Linux or Mac) but by a handheld smartphone. The open API on the smartphone will challenge the dominance of Windows.

For starters, In Asia alone there are 800 million mobile users.
90 million users on a smartphone.
The PC Internet users in Asia are at 500 million.
A relatively good smartphone is available today for US$ 250.

With an Asian population of 3.8 billion, how can we sell 3 Billion PC/laptop/mobile phones?

The answer lies in net connectivity.

3 years ago, the only thing that was wired to the net was a laptop or PC.
Today if you have a GPRS mobilephone, you are net connected.

Lets say you are net connected but you still need proprietary OS to run applications.

That is where Android and Ribbit are pretty strategic.
Infact there are a host of others who are just as strategic as these two; Editgrid, Zoho, ThinkFree, etc

Anyway what they are doing with the free API, is opening up your ability to connect to the net without any bootable proprietary OS.

You can get online, you can browse with their API, use their online doc and spreadsheets just as you would do with Word and Excel. This means no hard drives for booting and no proprietary OS.

I think these guys figured that the only reason we stick to Windows is becoz we have got Windows loaded on our system. I mean our systems are configured to become a recognisable interphase with Windows.

So what if Android and Ribbit give you a reason not to load Windows anymore, would you still stick with Word and Excel. That is what their API will do, atleast that is what Android & Ribbit hope to accomplish. Their open APIs will become the interphase.

The cost savings on proprietary software and the absence of hard drive to store application suites will make the smartphone inexpensive.

If the APIs nudge Windows Mobile, RIM, OSX and Symbian out, then I am pretty sure the APIs will nudge out Windows OS on the desktop and laptop.

I think the intersting part would be what is Microsft, RIM or Symbian going to do about this? As on date none of these players are on open APIs and free online office suites.

As afterword, The smart chess player is not the one who can read his opponents moves but one who can keeps his moves concealed.

Predicting

Another offshoot of the Uncertainity Principle is that we can't use past data to predict the future, if we could then it takes the randomness out of life.
Or rather we would be in a position to chart out our lives, well we can, but then there is always the small chance that things don't go the way we predict, a small chance but then a very strong chance that it can be plausible.

So slim is this chance that we have the theory of evolution based on probablity, and probablity that has been theorised to be possible. I mean it makes us wonder if life indeed is that random, that life's origin was just a random event, it is pretty much like expecting a chimp punching on the keys of a typewriter and voila at some point of time the chimp would come up with Homer's - Iliad.

The chances are way too slim, but then that is life or randomness as it has been theorised as "the origin of species".

If we do accept that life is random or uncertain; then it would be silly to claim that we have achieved success or built empires or conquered markets, etc. I mean what we may have thought to have done was just a random lucky chance of a deal and we happen to seize on it.

This if true, then providence should visit upon all over a the long term.
I mean no one person is luckier than the other, events of life visit all, it is just a question of when do they visit each of us.

Actually, science does state it so, life is a poker game.
And they give it a name like: ergodicity

It can be explained as when a statistical analysis over the entire ensemble at a certain moment in time, and a statistical analysis for one element of the ensemble over a certain period of time are such that if the first one may not be representative for a longer period of time, while the second one may not be representative for all the people resulting in 2 results.
The idea is that an ensemble is ergodic if the two types of statistics give the same result.

In simpler words over a long period of time the results tend to be similar, which goes on to say that all of us are given the same chances in life.
Some get it earlier while some get it later.
Life just averages out in the end for each an every one.

Uncertainity Principle

Just got about thinking about the Uncertainity Principle.
How it explains that it is not possible to know momentum and position accurately simultaneously.

Another way of saying it would be that though there are laws as we see: physical laws, natural laws, chemical laws, etc within the scope of these laws life is way too random to predict.

I mean what can happen to us is unpredicatable in the very next instant.
However we can be sure that gravitation would not fail and we would fall off the earth, or suddenly the atoms that hold us together would call it a day and would disperse off - disintegrating our body.

I mean we know the various laws still will hold true(at least for a time) but life at the same time where we are heading is still unpredicatable.

Which could get us to hypothesize how much of our lives are coincidences, planned incidences and random incidences or as we call common luck.

Well the billion dollar question is.
Whether we can chart out our lives.
But then the uncertainity principle states we can't.

there goes the billion dollars...poof!

N E W S

TV News has got so lame.
Probably it always was, but I can't blame the reporters.

How would they know what the individual tastes are of each and every viewer.
So the easy way out is report everything that is worth reporting.
And what is worth reporting?
Well since they can't decide and they don't want to be prejudiced, everything is worth reporting.

I mean everything that they can get their hands on is going to get reported, and everything that is going to get reported is going to be sensational.

I think it pays to bear in mind, the news broadcasters make money only if it makes an impact.

In a way the news is prejudiced, news reporting as it is done today is made to elicit an emotional response from the audience. If it fails to do so, the news channels fails to make money.

Well, there is a self-interest in most things, if not all.

K·I·N·D·L·E

Will Amazon's kindle survive?
Well yes.

However I feel the pertinent question is with whom?

A good analogy would be would a US$ 1300 laptop survive against a US$600 Desktop.
Again the answer is yes, but the pertinent question is actually, with whom?

So who is the right customer for 'Kindle'?
At US$ 399, I choose to be old fashioned, so I will stick to the good old paperback.

I think I need to ask, how convenenient can this device be and how comfortable can I be to use the Kindle and ipso facto to shell out US$399.

most expenisve asset is also the cheapest..

In business, the most expensive asset for the enterpreneur is equity. This qualifications stems from the fact that any business takes time to build the business and this time is hardwork and persevearance put in by the enterpreneur.
This time is represented in the form of equity for the enterpreneur in his enterprise.

So he hold on to his equity and values his equity highly.

Small and medium enterprise also have a tough time making investments for future business opportunities. Firstly on account of the fact that when there are many avenues to make such investments, it becomes difficult to choose the optimal investment to maximise returns and also because small firms find it difficult to leverage liquidity. There are definite limitations imposed on small firms to the extent of debt they would be given by a financial institution (bank).

However when we look at the banks itself, especially in developed economies, shareholders equity generally referred to as Tier 1 capital is as low as 4% of liablities. And guess what are these liablities for a bank, the deposits the bank holds of the public.
What this means is if a bank goes bust, it has just 4% of its own funds to return incase of liquidation on the other hand it also means that the banks would never lend to any business leveraged in this manner, but is somehow able to garner funds from the public despite its overleveraged position.

This also means most banks have 4% of their own money while 96% comes from public
deposits, ineffect banks are doing business with public money.

This is in stark contrast to a business firm, wherein if not all at least 50% of capital needs to be from the owners of the business.

Ergo, a business firm if it defauts loses a greater amount-50%, while a bank loses 4%.

Given this information, the banks are the smart buggers, doing business with public money. Taking a greater risk with public money.
While a small business holds its equity dearly that has little value and does business with their own funds.

When a bank defaults, the soverign (reserve bank) prints more currency or bails them out. As we see in the case of Northern Rock.

While the business if it goes bust, the first lien is the bank's.

Natural, Organic & Certified PETA - Fags

Natural “American Spirit”.
It is organic, "all natural" and not tested on animals and certified "cruelty free" by PETA.
It’s a pack of cigarettes with a ‘Red Indian Chief’ motif on the box?

A damn good niche these guys have tapped into. Perhaps, they should have been less blatant about it, I mean a pack of cigarettes that is all natural, organic and certified by PETA gets to be morally right but virtuously wrong - though incidentally comic.

For the smoker who wants to communicate affluence this is a great product if he can get by the ‘inconsistency’ first.

But then again, if the smoker smokes despite the smoke, I guess a smoker sees no inconsistency. it is the non-smoker who does.

music we usually hear is not good music...

Most people prefer to buy music they have heard before. For people to have heard it before the song needs to be played repeatedly over a period of time; people will buy music only if they are familiar with it.

The TV or Radio station promoting these songs don’t do this on account of an RJ or VJ’s personal choice, the shows producer dictates which song to play depending on advertising revenues. So if it advertising revenues from a new film release, songs featured in the film will be played over and over in a way to patronize the music/film company.

So we don’t really get to hear good music but what is good money for the radio station or TV channel. Given that, its mostly new releases that we will hear and that will sell.

And truly, in the music/film distribution business, 75% of sales accrue from new releases. If so, do you have good music taste or does your taste just reflect what you are familiar with.

Perhaps, popular music is not necessarily good music it's just what we are made to hear to get familiar with.
Good music is what we usually don't hear often most likely from an independent label with not big budgets to promote.

WTD

World Toilet Day, yes sir-ee, 19th November, a day observed as WTD since 2001. Come to think of it, how do you observe such a day. For us Indian this ain’t too far fetched, you can observe such a day by just heading to a railway station or a beach or the river banks or the streets and you get the idea that everyday in India is WTD.
Which probably brings about the significance of WTD!!!
But we in India don’t look at toilet issues as a problem maybe we have been inured to it. The average person visits the toilet somewhere between 6-8 times a day over the lifespan of a human this works to about 2-3 years of ones life. This probably ranks toilet issues with illiteracy, poverty, housing and how much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood.
Some additional statistics pretty similar to the ‘woodchuck’ one referred above; of the billion and upward population that India has today about 700 million and upwards defecate in the open. The statistics for the entire world as concerning toilet issues were at 2.6 billion, which puts India squarely responsible for one third of the toilet problem.
Elsewhere I happen to read that India is exporting portable toilets for the Chinese Olympics; ones that can be assembled and disassembled maybe the need is greater outside than domestic. Another country paranoid about terrorist attacks has built bomb-proof toilets maybe toilets are more valuable than human life - bomb bombs but toilets intact.
I don’t know maybe we have a sense of humour despite our deplorable disposition about the dearth of toilets; we have a toilet museum in India.
In terms of a business perspective, I think the toilet business is one that would never run dry provided you have a real killer of an idea to tap the turd market.

passion and plunge

There is a time when most things looks promising and there is a time when fewer things look as promising.

For most of us folks from business school, a good bunch of us these ideas remain where they are that is in the head while for a few who do manage to make that leap reality hits around the corner.

The key crux where most ideas fail is that the idea needs to make money.
And if we are in the 25 to 30 age bracket, we could get excited about such a thoroughly boneheaded idea that we should not be surprised that it can't as much as remain afloat.

If you're going to spend years working on some business, you'd think it might be wise to spend at least a couple days considering different ideas, instead of going with the first that comes into your head. You'd think. But most us don't.

In fact, this is a constant problem. Part of the reason is passion, not for the fact you should be any less passionate about your idea but most times passion does not make you look at things objectively, for the love of the idea, you hope and imagine that the idea is good and it will work.

Actually passion should arise as you dig in deeper into the domain of work. You find data supporting your idea rather than looking for data that could support your idea.
My experience tells me this takes from anywhere between 1 to 3 years which is a fairly drawn out time, the real passion will linger or grow if you are in a position to pursue the idea this far and for such a length of time.
But if you're so impatient to get started that ten minutes of rearranging and culling data feels very long. The outcome should be no surprise a year or two later.

Another offtake on the idea that grows over a longtime is that big projects tend to grow out of small ones.

The key crux is not against that plunge, but recognizing that plunging into an idea does not make the idea work. Some get this faster than others. A part of the game is that practise does make you better, but you can also play smart.

For beginers keep passion at bay and don't plunge at the first idea.
passion and plunge have a direct connection if you recognise it you will get patient with your idea.

Horse and Mount!

If a statue of a person in the park on a horse has both front legs
in the air, the person died in battle.

If the horse has one front leg in the air, the person died as a
result of wounds received in battle.

If the horse has all four legs on the ground, the person died of
natural causes.

"longue lwisler"

The "sixth sick sheik's sixth sheep's sick" is said to be the
toughest tongue twister in the English language.

inebriating

Banta Singh walks into a bar in London and orders 3 glasses of Beer and sits at corner of the bar, drinking a sipout of each glass inturn.

When he finishes, he goes back to the bar counter and orders 3 more.
The bartender tells him, "You know, beer goes flat after I fill it in the glass; it would taste better if you buy one at a time."

Banta Singh replies, "Well, you see, I have 2 brothers, one in Dubai and the other in Canada and I'm here in London. When we left home we promised that we'll drink this way to remember the days we drank together."
The bartender admists that it is a nice custom and leaves it at that.
Banta becomes a regular in the bar and always drinks the same way.
One day he comes in and orders 2 glasses of beer. All the other regulars fall silent. When he comes back for the second round, the bartender says, "I don't want to intrude on your grief, but I wanted to offer my sincere condolences for your great loss."

Banta looks confused for a moment, and then laughs."Oh...no," he says.
"Both my brothers are alive, the only thing is I just quit drinking!!!"

by The Colonel

Net Wealth

Question: Does an increase in the price of mangoes make you better off?

Answer: Only if you are a net exporter of mangoes, that is if you have more than enough left over to sell after your own consumption. If you do, then the additional mangoes fetch you good income at the increased prices.

If you are consuming all that you have or produce, you have no additional income as you have no additional mangoes to sell after consumption.
If you are consuming more than you have, then you would have to do so by buying mangoes from a mango exporter at the increased price of mangoes.

So an increase in prices of mangoes, is beneficial only to those with the surplus and who can sell this surplus after their own consumption.
The person who is buying mangoes at this time is doing so at an increased cost and is actually worse off.
The person who is consuming just as much as he produces is not better or worse off.

Question: However does an increase in price of homes make you better off?

Answer: Well, if you have just one and you are staying in it, then well not really as you are in a manner consuming what you have and you will continue to do so as long as you stay in that home. A housing boom leaves you no worse or better off if you own a home or are in the process of owning one vide a home loan.

The increase in price of homes makes you better off only if you have more than one home, that is when you have a surplus, just as in the case of mangoes.

The surplus home can be sold and part of the proceeds can be reinvested and part consumed. But in the absence of this surplus, regardless of whether there is a change in price of realty or even housing interest rates, the increase or decrease in prices does not affect the single house owner.
Notionally he can say he is richer in a housing boom, but that richness will never be translated to cash.

The crux is a house especially the one you are living in, does not add to you net wealth. It does not in anyway contribute an additinal income for your expenses, for all I am aware it will continue to make you expend on it.

In business this principle of net wealth is fairly straight forward, but in personal finances most people overlook this aspect. Only if a business does generate a surplus would it be called an asset, in the absence of this surplus it would be termed a liablity.

In contrast a home does not generate a cash inflow, infact it generates a cash outflow. Most single house owners would wrongly call a home an asset, well actually again it is not one as long as you are staying in it. It becomes an asset only if you sell that home.
Infact as long as you stay in that one home it is a liablity.
The liablity arising on account of expenses and maintenance.

If you sell the home, the liablity ceases, and you have the proceeds of the sale as an asset.

Today, most people take housing loans to the extent of 30 years, much of what they earn every year goes into repaying this loan, well the question is how does all this add to your net wealth?
Frankly it does not, notionally it does make them richer in the time of a housing boom, but realistically they still don't come to inherit the increased wealth till the house is sold.

So how does one add to ones net wealth, well anything that one can produce in surplus, over and above your consumption.
Rather if I can say, net wealth is the ability to produce that surplus and not the wealth itself.

Most people would attribute net wealth to the surplus wealth per se.
That too is a fallacy like adding the 'value of a home' to net wealth.
A case in point is inherited wealth, they have net wealth, but since they lack the ability the net wealth will reduce in time.

It is that ability to produce the surplus over and above consumption!
The question is now is what is that ability to make that surplus?

the way up...

At the recent Congress party national convention, there was a lot of talk and intent on building the incumbent organisation based on openess and relevance by ensuring that progress is linked to performance.

This is in stark contrast to the present lineage on which the Congress is heading to. Rahul Gandhi is generally accepted as the Congress' crown prince and he has now been taking active interest in politics, which does lead one to infer that he is gradually filling the family position.

I think these are important times for the Congress, if the intent mentioned in the national convention is to be true it would be well to institute internal elections within the party itself. Just as Sonia stepped down to for Manmohan Singh to take on the PM of the country, the act of internal elections would cut new ground for the Congress.

I think it is vital to know that the Congress has so far has not been based on any particular ideology tilted towards caste or religion. It has so far been neutral and unequivocal about such beliefs. It would help if it can extend such a belief to an internally elected democratic leader than one based on lineage.
Sonia Gandhi did do this once, it remains to be seen if her son Rahul Gandhi would follow suit.

If he does, it will seal his position as the democratic leader of the largest democratic party in India.

Which is to say, the way to the top starts down.
An umbrella can only do its job if firmly held by the bottom, not the top.

encylopedia - Citizendium

But Larry Sanger is optimitic and going big on Citizendium, the expert-moderated alternative to the "open" encyclopedia Wikipedia incidentally which also he launched a year ago with Jimmy Wales of Wikipedia.

The results so far are modest: 3,700 articles since Novemeber 2006, compared to more than 2 million on Wikipedia. But the key difference is quality. The articles are moderated and approved, making them reliable.

It overcomes the biggest drawback that Wikipedia has - its lack of authenticity.
Moreover it also pins down the author and editor of each article, this allows for exchange of information between commentators and most importantly gets these informers accountable for the information they put up.

On the slow progress that Citizendium is making given the sheer volume of information available, Mr Sanger, is unfazed, as he comments: "At some point, possibly very soon, the Citizendium will grow explosively - say, quadruple the number of its active contributors, or even grow by an order of magnitude. And it will experience that growth over the course of a month or two, and its growth will continue to accelerate from that higher rate."

Well, he is right about the 'Tipping Point'.
The numbers of articles and users will grow exponentially, and I sure hope he gets the formula right.

I would though ask Larry Sanger to reconsider the present connotation 'Citizendium'.

Keep it simple, Larry, people don't want to go through an encyclopedia to find out about 'Citizendium'. If we can't pronounce it, there is a chance that we can't spell it, just too many phonetics.

the guys in between...

Just read that CA (Computer Associates) is outsourcing R&D and future product development for part of its security portfolio to HCL. CA keeps control of the brand and handles all the sales and marketing.

It's one thing for a product to be outsourced but software is something proprietary, especially since it invloves product knowhow and/or source code.
I mean I can't think of Google or Microsoft outsourcing their software development activity to a thirdy party vendor.

This could be a harbinger of sorts:
1. Maybe retaining and developing inhouse software code is not as value additive as we think out to be. Maybe the field is being levelled and extrnal talent is available that can replicate as well as innovate software code as competent as one would expect.

2. Maybe the outsourcing of development itself could mean a commoditisation of the particular service. This maxim is generally true in manufacturing products which is why outsourcing began with products tending towards commodities.

3. Maybe marketing as a 'value add' creates a high enough entry barrier that may not be easy to replicate for a competing firm, CA at least believes so. To an extent this is true, marketing is about relationships, and though we know a better price wins, marketing is not that facile as better price, market presence and first mover advantage don't get the market.
There are relationships and nexus between the user and seller, and dislodging any one takes more than price and knowhow.

4. In effect all this outsourcing makes marketing itself a commodity. I mean if the marketer is not the user nor the producer but just the 'transporter', is it going to be that value additive being just a 'deliverer'.

Imagine a Pizza Business running on the skill and acumen of the Pizza delivery man.
That probably is what marketing is getting to be, today.

I think the next big paradign shift is 'delivery' and it is not going to be marketing as we know it.

I think Dell managed to do that wonderfully in its market.
I mean here the process and not the product. (I won't swear by a Dell.)

My point is when a product and service is tending to get commoditised, the innovation is in the 'process'/'delviery', unless we want to be the guys in between rather the Pizza delivery guy.

Maybe CA has the oneup in the market on 'delivery'.

the richest man and our economy

Reliance’s Mukesh Ambani is now the richest man in the world, or so the media has informed us, though Mukesh Ambani himself contests this fact, stating that the manner in which his net worth has been calculated based on his shareholding in Reliance group companies is circumspect. Estimated at $63bn, he is a notch above Mexico’s Carlos Slim with Bill Gates close on Slim’s heel. Mukesh Ambani’s fortune represents 1.5 per cent of the Indian GDP.

Are the vast fortunes being made in India the result of productive entrepreneurship or private monopolies? The answer to this question depends on where the economies are likely to go. The bigger the fortunes made by extracting rent from uncompetitive markets (monopoly), the greater the resistance to the introduction of fiercer competition and so the weaker competition itself is likely to be.

For the sake of comparison: The top five Sensex constituents are: Reliance Industries (12.31%), Infosys Technologies (11.14%), ICICI Bank (8.77%), Bharti Airtel (6.1%) and Larsen & Toubro (4.85%). The top five Nifty constituents are: Reliance Industries (10.38%), ONGC (9.32%), Bharti Airtel (7.34%), Tata Consultancy Services (5.91%) and Infosys Technologies (5.59%). Of these Reliance is the only private sector company in a product sector. With the exception of L&T (FI) and ONGC (Govt.), the remaining 7 companies are private and in services, they have come up in the last 20 years about the same time the Indian markets were thrown open to foreign investors and competition.

In industry and services, if we compare with China our closest competitor: China’s industrial growth rate was 11 per cent a year. Output per worker rose at 9.8 per cent a year. Meanwhile, India’s industrial growth was just 6.7 per cent a year. Output per worker was at 5.8 per cent a year.

Now turn to services. Here India’s growth rate was close to China’s: 9.1 per cent a year, against 9.8 per cent. Output per worker contributed 5.1 percentage points of the growth in China and 5.4 percentage points in India. Here is the one sector where Indian productivity growth matched China’s. Rising factor productivity contributed 3.9 percentage points to Indian growth and just 0.9 percentage points to China’s.

Perhaps, is there a connection, the underperformance in Indian industry could be on account of a monopolistic or protectionist outlook in products and commodities but better than average performance in service is on account of competition and free enterprise that is encouraged.
Our sensex sure reflects this so does the figures tabulated by NBER.

Back to Reliance, it has a huge dominance in the polymer market, infact this market is where Reliance has amassed its mass fortunes. It controls up to 80% of the domestic polymer market. Infact in a privatization initiative of the government, IPCL a erstwhile competitor to Reliance in the polymer market was hived of to Reliance giving it further dominance and monopoly in the market. The vast concentrations of wealth sure did politically influence this sale, in a manner that does undermine the very competition India is trying to purport, this move may have been beneficial for a Reliance to take on foreign major in the long run, but in the short run the SME in the polymer business have been held at ransom in India. Ergo the polymer market in India is far smaller and is less competitive as compared to its Asian competitors.

So where is our economy heading towards productive entrepreneurship or private-political hegemony.

The Politics of Fear

If you’ve wondered how certain political groups retain power despite the fact that they have actually hampered development probably even hurt their own support base, this missive should be enlightening based on Gerard Miquel’s paper.

1. A ruler can maintain support from his ethnic followers even though he is extracting resources from them.
The reason is equilibrium; a leader steals resources not only from his own supporter group but extracts greater resources from the opposition group.
If the group in power decides to keep their leader, the stability of the regime maintains the status quo. If they decide to oust him they face a chaotic succession process in which they cannot guarantee the next leader will belong to their group.
Since their predicament under the leadership of a politician from another group is worse than under their own ruler, the latter can capture the support of his ethnic followers while reducing their utility.
This is the fundamental mechanism of the Politics of Fear: if succession is not fully controlled by supporters then they would be worse under the opposition leader, so the present supported leader tend to be not accountable to their own supporters.

2. A political party can enunciate on difference or exclusions based on religion, race, caste, social strata, social security, bloc of employees of govt. undertakings, etc - these fears of exclusion spread across groups and compound the ability of political leaders to extract resources.

Suppose group A has a strong comparative advantage in a particular activity that leaves it vulnerable to expropriation. Group A members thus know that a B leader would expropriate them. Hence Group A’s leaders will be able to extract large rents from their A supporters by virtue of the Politics of Fear. As noted
above, when leader A can tax his supporters heavily, he can also increase taxes on B citizens. This implies that B citizens also fear an A leader that cannot be reigned in by his A supporters. As a consequence, when a B leader captures power, his group will allow him to steal; group A’s fear of leadership change allows both A and B leaders to escape accountability.

This mechanism will allow any group leader to take advantage of the fear of leadership change that any group feels.

3. Ousting a leader initiates an uncertain process that involves potential change in the relative status of different groups. The ruler, if he falls, his relatives, friends, lieutenants, clients and followers also may fall, and the ensuing political disruption may threaten the political peace or status quo.

Emergency

For Pakistan since its inception, India has been enemy no#1.
If Pakistan does feel any insecurity it could be only on account of us.
I mean if they have gone nuclear it is because of a looming threat from us.
They feel undermined because of something we have or something we did, God only knows, I mean the average Indian can't quiet understand what would be the reason for such animosity or fear or paranoia.

I reckon if at any time any of us got about to spend more than a courteous time with a Pakistani, somehow or somewhere the conversation would have come down to Kashmir, and how we hoodwinked them of their share, and now they want Kashmir.


And now, they are on Emergency!
They are at 'WAR' with themselves.

Isn't it ironic?
All that paranoia on us was an utter waste...

It would be interesting to note a comment by the recently retired number two, General Ehsan-ul-Haq, “We consider extremism and terrorism to be the highest-priority threat to the security and well-being of Pakistan.”

Please note; a hiatus I presume nevertheless India has ceased to be enemy #1.

Dutch Disease & Kerala

The short-term and even the medium-term outlook of growth in India is positive. That is, ironically, the crux of the problem. With growth rate expectations in the 8-9 per cent range, foreign funds will continue to pour in, in pursuit of returns from growth. We seem to show symptoms of an economic malady called ‘Dutch Disease’. It refers to negative consequences arising from large increases to a country's income. Dutch disease is primarily associated with a natural resource discovery, but it can result from any large increase in foreign currency inflows: including foreign direct investment, foreign aid or a substantial increase in natural resource prices.
This condition arises when foreign currency inflows cause an appreciation in the affected country's currency. This has two main effects for a country afflicted with Dutch Disease:
1. A decrease in the price competitiveness, and thus the exports, of its manufactured goods. Exports from the affected country become expensive vis a vis exports from a competing country.
2. An increase in imports, as the appreciating currency makes imports cheaper.
3. Labour begins to migrate to the sectors performing better or booming sector. This flux will create a labour shortage in the lagging sector and an artificial increase in wages in the lagging sector making the sector uncompetitive. This can snowball into other industries or even agriculture.
The cascading effects of increased imports is a killing of the domestic manufacturing sector as domestic firms are more expensive to operate in terms of labour and exchange rate. In the long run, these factors can contribute to manufacturing jobs being moved to lower-cost countries.
In the absence of action by the regulatory authority (Reserve Bank) to stem this inflow, the rupee, can only appreciate, if this keeps adding, rather than subtracting, to the returns earned by these foreign investors, then inflows will continue to cascade. Lesser rupees continue to provide more dollars to the foreign investor if the rupee continues to appreciate, thus reinforcing the incentive to the foreign investor to bring in further investment. This will happen as long as the rupee remains under-valued, and the pressure on it to appreciate will continue to increase.
As such there are many recommendations to immunize the Dutch Disease, however since I am no economist; it would worth our while to look at the effects of ‘Dutch Disease’ specific to the state of Kerala rather than endemic to the country as a whole.
Kerala has the largest inflows in foreign currency; manufacturing sector has gone for a toss, incidentally our agriculture industry too has gone for a toss. Labour is the most expensive and for all I know the best thing they do is ‘strike’. I would have hoped that our commie government would bring about some motivation or induce some supply in labour, but it is this labour that keeps these commies in power so our over-expensive labour serves the comrades vested interest to remain in power. We import all that we require from Tamil Nadu or Karnataka. We even provide our natural resource 'water' to Tamil Nadu.
Any inoculation please start with us!

the marriage/divorce of greed...

2 years ago H D Deve Gowda was considered so advanced as a conspiratinal genius that he was dreaded as an enemy. Now he is dreaded even as a friend.

2 years ago, while chief Deve Gowda was talking of an alliance with the Congress, his second son H D Kumaraswamy, split the party and joined hands with the BJP to form the government in Karnataka. There was a public display of the chief expelling his son from Janta Dal, today 2 years later they have come together and are conspiring again.

To those who are fairly acquanited with the Janta Dal escapade, it becomes fairly certain that Chief Deve Gowda has lost his marbles & he is writing his epitaph.

Deve Gowda ditched the Congress vide his son for the BJP. Then he ditched the BJP to woo the Congress. Then he ditched the Congress to remarry the BJP. Then he virtually ditched the BJP again with a 12 point dictat.

If the BJP ever does get to rule, it would be unprecedented in Indian history, as the BJP has never ruled in any of the 4 southern states since Independence. Deve Gowda could seal his fate if he does give into a communal political party. Incidentally, even if the BJP do come to power with Deve Gowda's support, the BJP would have sleepless nights as Gowda is keen to bed with any party but does not sleep over with any of them.

This situation is very similar to the one we had in Kerala with Karunakaran and his son K Muraleedharan. This kind of escapade was what these 2 were upto in Kerala. Today they have no loyals for no loyalties; maybe that is the price of greed.

Framing the right rhetoric!

It now seems certain the television viewers are not adept at choosing equitably. In the now popular Star ‘Voice of India’ program, 5 judges had selected 12 able and talented singers from various town and cities pan India. These finalists would render a song each week, and SMS votes were solicited from viewers to the deserving candidate.

The producers of the program assumed that
1. Discerning viewers will vote.
2. Viewers can make the right choice
3. Viewers have no bias or prejudice in casting the vote.
4. Viewers cannot be coerced to vote for any single candidate on account of caste, creed or religion.
5. The poll itself cannot be rigged.

I don't know if the producers of this show considered these assumptions & limitations from inference it looks unlikely. I am certain that there could be more assumptions than what I have cared to mention above, but hope that the few indicated above does communicate the limitations in soliciting an 'open' poll from the public.

The producers of the show should have taken care to frame the question before soliciting a poll. The term 'framing' in pschology and sociology refers to an inevitable process of selective influence over the individual's perception of the meanings attributed to words or phrases. 'Framing' defines the packaging of an element of rhetoric in such a way as to encourage certain interpretations and to discourage others.

However programs in India or producers of such programs in India are a wee bit uninformed about ‘framing’ when soliciting responses from viewers.

Infact 2 deserving contestants were shunted out for lack of votes, but were brought back in vide wild card entry. Despite this fiasco, the producers still have not gathered their wits in framing the rhetoric to solicit an equitable poll. Infact this week, one of the two contestants who were brought in vide wild card entry, were shunted out. Next week the other contestant too will be shunted out for lack of votes. Quite naturally, there will be shock and surprise by viewers and producers alike, a retake of their ‘vote out’ a few weeks ago.

In fact in a program such as this the method to be employed should involve judges grading the finalists based on song renditions. Each week the producers chose the bottom 2 contestants in the grade score. The question should then be posed to the public. “Which one of these 2 contestants performed better? For Contestant A: SMS A for Contestant B: SMS B”. This process can be duplicated every week till the final 2 contestants.

Not everybody in the real world is a clear thinker sometime there is a clutter of information and not everybody can look through it. This is not to say people are daft; but it goes to say some look at it better than others. So choosing and framing the rhetoric is essential to curtail limitations and assumptions to reflect an accurate affirmative.

A similar case was raised a few years ago by Pakistan to conduct a plebiscite in Kashmir; raising the rhetoric ‘let the people of Kashmir decide if they would like to join with Pakistan or remain a part of India’. India moved this motion to the UN, and UN officials rejected this rhetoric on the grounds that the present populace in Kashmir does not reflect the actual populace so a plebiscite would not be an accurate representation of the people’s choice.

independence and interdependence

motivation based on independence and/or interdependence.

There is a certain part of us that consists of a unique set of attributes which enables us to stand apart and to separate ourselves from others in an environment. This part of us would like to exude these unique attributes and be independent.

At the same time, a part of us wants to be interconnected with and inter related to other in a social context. Experiencing interdependence, recognizing that ones behavior is determined by, contingent upon and to a large extent expressed by thoughts, emotions and actions of others in the social relationship. This part of us would pursue demands and expectations of the social group.

most of us examine and act out decisions based on these 2 factors. Maybe one is dominant more than the other sometimes while at other times we call for compromise on one and choose the other.

selection impediment

HABIT is hereditary with us humans. In a familial bevy, we get acclimatized to inter-relations and these in-turns develop or evoke emotions or actions akin. If our existing inter-relations are kindred and we are getting acclimatized to a bequeathed inter-relation then there is a strong probability that we are developing habits causal to the acclimatized bequeathed inter-relation in effect duplicating behaviors, actions or emotions similar to the bevy. In a sense, habits keep us from differentiating.

In contrast in nature, generally in a genus, species that develop variations in character from each other; will have the best chance of seizing on new and different places in the polity of nature. The more diversified the descendants become, the better will be their chance of success in the battle for life. The small differences arise on account of the species struggle for existence and would be passed onto so that its survival is ensured.

How is it that when we know the latter is better suited to our survival and progress that we still consciously choose the former?
Frankly, I don't know...maybe it is something like: ice cream is fattening, but I still have it, I guess we are all entitled to a little lassitude.

walking ahead, perceiving the past.

As we look out at the universe, we are looking back in time, because light had to leave distant objects a long time ago, to reach us at the present time.
This means that the events we observe actually lie in our past.

I guess this doesn't sound too radical when we are gazing upon the stars.

But the moment we start looking at our daily lives in this context, This is pretty confounding, we look ahead and walk looking ahead but what we perceive is what took place, in time a few units ago.

It is like looking ahead but perceiving what lies behind.

In our daily lives this does not matter as this is pretty much the manner in which all us human live I mean can we do something about it and change the way we see, I guess we have no option here, we will continue to perceive a future by perceiving the past.

SWF

Visiting China in late August, German Chancellor Angela Merkel wrung an assurance from her hosts that [China SWF]China Investment Corporation (CIC) would not try to buy strategic stakes in big Western corporations.

SWF have become increasingly popular as the spending power of a sovereign/country. SWF or sovereign wealth funds are typically created when governments have budgetary surpluses and have little or no international debt. Of the top 7 SWF - 6 of them are Asian with the exception of Norway. ADIA (Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) is at the top slot with USD 1.3 trillion capitalization; if ADIA liquidated its investment/shareholding in companies, it would fetch them this amount. For the sake of comparison the US GDP stands at about 13.13 trillion in effect ADIA’s capitalization is to the extent of 10% of the US economy.

More than the capitalization SWF have created, the SWF does have sizeable control on the management of a company and this means European or American Companies are owned and managed by SWF of another country. eg: QIA (Qatar Investment Authority - Qatar SWF) is looking at buying a sizeable stake in J Sainsbury, UK's leading grocery chain.

It is this concern of one nation's soverign & strategic interests when owned and operated by another nations SWF, that brings to light German Chancellor Angela Merkel comment on the CIC. Given the scope and capability of an SWF, they can gobble up huge corporations in a blink of an eye. If we combine the SWF of Singapore, Saudi, China and Kuwait, these four could together gobble up another 10% of the US economy.

As on date, India is contemplating an SWF given its swelling foreign exchange reserves.

Which brings to light a popular Bob Dylan song "Times they are a changin'".

Our neighbour...

Most countries have a General however in the case of Pakistan the General has a country. To add to this, I would reckon that Pakistan also would be a country that has the highest casualty of Generals. One is deposed in macabre ways to make way for another.

In the present era, one ex-PM was rudely shunted on arrival to Saudi. He was impetuously told that he could not be in Pakistan. Another ex-PM on her return to Pakistan was greeted with much aplomb and 2 bombs. Well, the former was disparagingly treated but I think he is safe. The other was victoriously greeted but she is unsafe. Between the both of them I think they get the message.

All this has not mattered to the world and probably would not have — if Pakistan had not been a nuclear-armed country. To add to its nuclear capability, its chief scientist A Q Khan had leaked technological inputs and designs for the N Bomb to N Korea, and he has gone incognito. Much like Dawood who resides in Pakistan but Pakistani officials have short term memory loss in such matters. A Q Khan armed a non-nuclear state with nuclear capability, makes one wonder what cards the North Koreans had to barter this deal, but that is another take. Add to this a deposed democratic elected representative, a potential democratic elected representative, the recent deposed then reinstated Chief Justice and the endemic jehadi.

To a jehadi – you are either for them or against them, which means to say, if you disagree with them you are against them. The trouble is that there are enough committed dolts to hold this view and murder for his convenience. Pakistan has become a world problem.

So the party is at our next door neighbor’s place, there is definitely something brewing, let’s hope it is not a nuclear bomb. What could be worse; A jehadi with a nuclear bomb!

"Hence we may learn the lesson that on seizing a state, the usurper should make haste to inflict what injuries he must, at a stroke, that he may not have to renew them daily, but be enabled by their discontinuance to reassure men’s minds, and afterwards win them over by benefits." - The Prince - Niccolo Machiavelli.

stocks and the impossible trinity.

Asset prices especially of our stock markets seem to be at an all time high and there are no signs of it ebbing. The Sensex has now made a run from 14000 to 19000 in a matter of 2 months, a rise of 35%. Usually monetary policy is directed towards balancing an expansionary or contractionary markets ergo if markets are growing too fast monetary policy is directed to limit its growth to a manageable level, if markets are lack luster monetary policy is directed towards expansionary or growth policies. Thus monetary policy is balancing these 2 forces in an economic market.

In our case however the stock asset prices have increased on account of foreign inflows. These inflows are justified on the phenomenal growth of corporate earnings in India and expected growth and opportunity in Indian markets at least that is what we are led to believe. Inadvertently however, the foreign inflows have been appreciating the rupee (12% appreciation in the past quarter) which is affecting exports. Exports are getting expensive on account of lower dollar realization, a revision upwards of exports prices is netting fewer buyers in the world market and we see that exports in this quarter have slumped.

Generally a rapid and high growth market is soothed by increasing interest rates. Increased interest rates would encumber new investments, limiting growth and maybe in turn lowering assets prices. However when foreign inflows are increasing stock asset prices, an increased interest rate in the market further propels inflows into the country. So we are in a situation where we can’t affect interest rates, so foreign inflows will continue and the rupee will continue to appreciate v/s the dollar. Most economists call the dilemma the Impossible Trinity viz exchange rates, capital movement and interest rates. Economists believe you can choose only 2 out of 3.

What may be of importance to note is that SEBI, the stock exchange regulatory authority had issued a clarification or comment on foreign inflows using participatory notes. The day of comment evoked a 1700 point slide on the sensex. Mr. Damodaran, SEBI Chairman promptly retracted his statement, and dutifully the sense reverted by 1500 points that very same day. Maybe Mr. Damodaran doesn’t want to be the man behind a stock market crash only time will tell. Let’s wait & see.

Scotch Fir

The exposition is provided by a naturalist and may be of some significance especially when we put our hand up and ‘sigh’.

“In an estate of a relation, where I had ample means of investigation, there was a large and extremely barren heath, which had never been touched by the hand of man; but several hundred acres of exactly the same nature had been enclosed twenty-five years previously and planted with Scotch fir. The change in the native vegetation of the planted part of the heath was most remarkable, more than is generally seen in passing from one quite different soil to another: not only the proportional numbers of the heath-plants were wholly changed, but twelve species of plants (not counting grasses and carices) flourished in the plantations, which could not be found on the heath. The effect on the insects must have been still greater, for six insectivorous birds were very common in the plantations, which were not to be seen on the heath; and the heath was frequented by two or three distinct insectivorous birds. Here we see how potent has been the effect of the introduction of a single tree, nothing whatever else having been done, with the exception of the land having been enclosed, so that cattle could not enter.”

Maybe we need to find out our ‘Scotch Fir’ that one thing that can change the status quo of our predicament.

isolation to specialisation while chaos to variation..

Although isolation is of great importance in the birth of new species, on the whole the largeness of area is still more important, especially for the production of species which shall prove capable of enduring for a long period, and of spreading widely. Throughout a great and open area, not only will there be a better chance of favorable variations, arising from the large number of individuals of the same species there supported, but the conditions of life are much more complex from the large number of already existing species; and if some of these many species become modified and improved, others will have to be improved in a corresponding degree, or they will be exterminated. Each new form, also, as soon as it has been much improved, will be able to spread over the open and continuous area, and will thus come into competition with many other forms. They will thus play a more important part in the changing history of the organic world. - C R Darwin

It maybe worthwhile to draw a parallel between nature and economic markets or even life. An environment in flux allows a greater probable chance to develop favorable variations to withstand imperils or unforeseen circumstances than that can be garnered from a cloistered or stable environment.

complex relations..

There comes many a times when things we initiate don’t commence or inadvertently fail to go the way we intend. In such times we would often be tempted to attribute the failed initiation or outcome to matters of chance.

When a forest is cut down the new growth of vegetation that springs up could sometimes differ from its surroundings whereas in contrast places of old ruins which must have been formerly cleared of trees, the ruins display diversity akin to the surrounding forest. The vegetation whether akin or different must be the outcome of a struggle between the several kind of trees/plants each annually scattering its seeds by the thousand; the war between insect and insects, birds and beasts of prey — all striving, all feeding on each other, or on the trees their seeds and seedlings, or on other plants which first clothed the ground. The growth of vegetation would be a result of these various interactions.

Humblebees alone visit red clover flower, as other insects cannot reach the nectar and the bee alone seems to have sufficient weight to depress the petals of the clover. Hence we may infer if the whole genus of humble-bees became extinct, the red clover would become very rare, or wholly disappear. The number of humblebees in any place depends in a great measure upon the number of field mice, which destroy their combs and nests. The number of mice is largely dependent on the number of cats or predatory birds. Hence it is quite credible that the presence of a feline animal in large numbers in a place might determine, through the intervention first of mice and then of bees, the frequency of certain flowers in that place.

Perhaps, there is an entire series of interactions, interrelations and interconnections that coalesce to produce an outcome.

the last word

"Sometimes a great deal is made in public domain of the opinions expressed by our friends...but this should not alarm you."

- Sonia Gandhi, UPA Chairperson.
On the Left's Opposition to the Nuclear Deal.

Intersting to note:
1. The Left had countered the present Govt. on its Nuclear Programme.
If the Govt. did formalise a meeting with IAEA, this would have resulted in the Left withdrawing support to the Govt inadvertently destablising its 5 year term.

The 'counter' was more of a challenge to the present Govt asking them to take a chance and call in the wager.

Modus Operandi: The Govt. arranged a series of meetings. The actual objective of the meetings were just to keep the Left occupied in the meetings.
In total, 4 meetings were arranged in a span of 3 weeks.
None of them resulted to any conclusion to the Nuclear Programme.

I mean it is common knowledge that if we put a bunch of comrades together and ask them to decide on a subject, they would have endless discussions on which subject to start, but seldom initiate a subject.

Moral: Don't challenge in Politics, just keep the politicians occupied.
Meetings are the best way to keep the politicians occupied while the statesman can continue to run the affairs of the country.

2. If the UPA Govt had called in the wager of the Left.
The incrimination would have been on the UPA to have lost the Nuclear Deal and its ruling position. Maybe the vote banks would not have supported the UPA for a fresh term if re-elections were called.

Modus Operandi: The UPA did not call in the wager, neither did they issue any official statements countering the Left's wager. This would have aggravated the situation than placated it. The UPA was concered with taking the Nuclear Deal ahead.

And this is what todays evening NEWS scrolled.
The PMO(Prime Ministers Office) had 'informal' talks with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed El Baradei.

The talks may have been stated as 'informal', but I think the UPA played the cards astutely against the Left demands of 'no formal' talks.
I think Politics is all about nuances and subtlities and more so about 'playing power' than 'power play'.

Moral: I think a clear thinker is concerned with what the communication is achieving and not who said the last word. 'Power play' is what everybody does, we all have some power to do something, but 'playing power' is what a statesman does.


I think the UPA handled this situation deftly.
The Left as usual have the last word but 'no say'.
And the more they shoot their gobs, the bleaker their situation gets.
I find it unable to credit them for anything but the endemic holler. "Inquilab"
If it isn't the holler, then it is a 'strike' or a 'bandh'

Personally, I think we are often been inclined to have the last word, rebuttal, riposte, or refutal much like the Leftists.
It is not the appropriate thing to do, the right thing to do is just walk away or peacable diagree.
And in intense personal situations just 'agree'. Maybe I don't have to battle every whit out there, some agree some don't. Life and people are just like that.

I think UPA dis-agreed with the Left and still had it their way, while the Left just had their say.

Maybe I need more practice on 'playing power' than 'power play'.

political soilicitations

A leader of the present opposition party quizzed by a reporter.

Reporter: Sir, are you quitting your party?
Politician: I have no comments.

Reporter: Sir, are you not quitting the party?
Politician: I did not say anything.

Reporter: Sir, we have reports that you are quitting the party.
Politican: As far as these reports are concerned, these reports are not true as on today.

{Implicitly, what the politician means is the reports can be true after today.}

Politician: Today, I am a member of this party.

(Implicity, he is saying, tomorrow I don't intend to continue to be a member of this party.)

I don't know how smart this politician is, but he has just sent a solicitation for an invitation to the present ruling party. I don't know if the present ruling party will oblige, but if they do they have on their hands an obvious mistake.

in lighter vein

Indian from a small town comes to one of the bigger cities falls in luv with a nurse...After much thinking, he finally writes a love letter to her:

"I luv u sister."

*****************************

Son, while filling up a form: Dad, what should I write for Mother tongue?

Dad: Very long!

Darwinism

#1 “We see indefinite variability in the endless slight peculiarities which distinguish the individuals of the same species, and which cannot be accounted for by inheritance from either parent or from some more remote ancestor. Even strongly marked differences occasionally appear in the young of the same litter and/or in seedlings from the same seed-capsule.”
#2 “The principle of reversion states that there could arise characteristics in domestic varieties such that that our domestic varieties, if not interbred with other stock to invariably revert in character to their wild aboriginal stock."

Animal Planet happened to be showcasing a program on adaptability: An animal’s endemic hide that concels its presence in an environment is on the contrary divulging it presence. The subject was a particular yellow colored crocodile which was distinct from the cornucopia of black crocodiles in the waterhole. The distinctness in its yellow color could not be traced to its immediate parent and is referred to as indefinite variability. The endemic crocs had a black pachyderm which camouflages its presence in the murky waters of the waterhole. The black hide aids the crocs by cloaking it in the muddy waters allowing it to prey on herbivores that quench their thirst at the waterhole. But since this particular subject crocodile was yellow (#1) it becomes apparent despite the murky waters. The ‘indefinite’ variability is on account of the variability being uncommon in the ambient brood of crocodiles.
Most black crocodiles would paddle up close to the prey but as it nears the prey its eyes and snout are the only visible distinguishing features above the water and when in striking distance it lunges onto the prey. The advantage the black crocs have is that they can sneak up real close to the prey on account of their pachyderm.
The yellow crocodile when following a similar routine in catching its prey is not successful. (#2 – hunting like the rest of the crocs) It has to adapt its hunting skills. It adapts by immersing itself completely into the water and heads to the prey underwater. It lunges itself onto the prey from beneath the water. This was unlike the prevalent hunting behavior, the black crocs lunged from the surface while the yellow croc lunged from beneath the water with no cues from any other crocodile as it is the only one of a yellow color.
Now if we mutatis-mutandis the principles that is if it was reversion that made the croc to revert to a yellow hide (we can’t be sure as there were any other yellow crocs in the brood) then it had to adapt its skill to an indefinite variability from the remaining brood of black crocodiles.
Both these principles were observation of Darwin which he penned in ‘The Origin of Species’, he precludes both principles to a parental linkage. This discussion however does not limit itself to the preclusions that Darwin made so as to broaden the scope of the discussion and bear on the following:
1. It would be interesting to note how we humans bring indefinite variability in reversions or how reversions create indefinite variability.
2. What may be critical to note is a reversion in one trait is not accompanied by a reversion in another which in Darwinism would be to de-evolve rather than evolve.
3. Further to #2, Darwin had expounded on a ‘law of correlation’ commenting that for a change in trait there would be a corresponding change in characteristic too.
4. The above points could imply that human characteristics are correlated and if so, then a change in one should follow with a change in another. The encumbrance to do so could ferret our abilities in turn our very own growth.

Sometimes if we can recognize our reversion we can nurture an indefinite variability.

What comes first? the chicken or the egg?

The question that has perplexed westerners since ages.

What comes first - the chicken or the egg?

And the answer was found in a local dhabha in Jalandhar.
What comes first - the chicken or the egg?

Oye yaar, jiska order pehle dogay, vo ayega!!!

Religion and Politics

Religion and Politics each in their utopian state is an appeal to the conscience of man/woman. And the corruption of both is wealth. Their genesis and ministration is a result of an appeal to the conscience of men/women. Both draw wealth and people and the appetite for wealth grows with what it feeds upon which in-effect means greater number of people contribute to greater wealth.

Maybe we need to be a little more discerning concerning them. It is not about loyalties and stairway to heaven but who has the greater appetite.

The appetite for wealth grows with what it feeds upon.

solving a problem

The peculiarity (in theory) of solving a problem:

There is a sudden burst of inspiration – eureka – and the solution evokes from our minds.
or
The other is a thought process of steps towards the solution of a problem.

PJL

to lie or not to....

Some data by a leading researcher (Paul Ekman) on why the general population finds it difficult to discern lies.

Reason #1.Our environment, to a large extent the environment we grow up in viz; genetically and physical environment. The former invloves the line of thought that our brains are not developed in the area of being deceivers. In a community, more often people want to live peaceably amongst each other so the chances that people in a community would lie are rare. This implies that in a community since people find it difficult to get away with a lie thus most people will not lie. The research points out that in the early communities people did not have their own space, rooms with walls for privacy, in such a case lying and cheating would be difficult, so we come from an environment that didn’t purportlie and cheat. What the researcher is implying is that our brains are not developed to a level where we are congenital liars and thus we find it difficult to identify a lie.
This could mean that if a liar is in an environment that fails to catch him/her, he/she is more likely to lie. So it may be important to know the past environment to evaluate the probability that one is a liar.

Reason #2. Society by itself makes it difficult for a liar to get away with a lie. I mean the law. The law is attuned to catch the outlaw. So there is a discouragement in a community to lie.

I don’t know how far this is true, look at our politicians they talk through their hat most of the time. Our problem is we don’t know when they are lying and when they are telling the truth, but it could be fair to generalize that politicians talk through their hats most of the time.
But the society does not encourage to lie but people who can get away with a lie will.

3. The target (of deceit) would prefer to believe the lie than otherwise as the target would have a vested interest to maintain the status quo than find out otherwise.

Corny Example:- A wife asks her husband, “Was there any other woman at the party whom you thought was more attractive than me?”. The husband would most probably lie by claiming she was the most attractive even if she was not. He does not want to make her jealous or he does not want her having ill feelings, and she herself may want to believe she was the most attractive.

Self-Thought Question #1: Is that a trick question?
Self-Thought Question #2: Why would a woman ask a question like that?

Implicit Conclusion: Maybe the husband loves his wife so he lies. Maybe he is a real nut-case and he prefers to lie.

The afore questions and conclusion are not relevant to the discussion, some rhetoricals are better not raised or concluded.

4. We are generally polite or at least we want to be polite even when we don’t want to be. I couldn’t believe this one, till the researcher exemplified.

Example 1: We generally avert our gaze if someone picks his/her nose. At that juncture we wouldn’t interrupt the digger while he/she is on such a meaningful activity in life and break his/her concentration and query him/her on why he/she did what he/she did exactly at that juncture.

Example 2: A secretary who feels miserable about a fight with her husband the previous night answers, “Just fine,” when her boss asks, “How are you this morning?”. The boss just wants to know if she is up to work, so she politely replies she is fine.

5. People don’t let tell us they are lying, if they did infomr us immediately after telling a lie, then we have a better chance of analyzing the facial expressions, demeanor, gaze, etc. Since we do not receive such information people tend to be dubious about all statement or they are gullible to the information provided by a liar.

In the normal course of our lives, we generally don’t have situations like this where we know that the subject is trying to mislead us. Neither do we know if the subject will mislead us – for all we know at that instant he/she may say a truth.

Now to the crux. We do know that the moot reason an individual lies is in self interest but there are professions that look at a lie with no self interest rather not one which purports themselves.

Professions like forensic experts, detectives, police, counter intelligence, etc need to discern a from the truth, this is common knowledge and quite elementary .

But, in addition we have 2 legitimate professions who should know how to lie.
Nurses and doctors should know how to conceal negative emotions, maybe this keeps the patient and family positive about a possible recovery which could actually aid the patient’s recovery. It also gives patients and thier immediate relatives a chance of hope in such cases.

Genius

There are 2 kinds of genius’ one kind makes the paper the other writes on the paper.
For the lesser mortals (c'est moi), we just use what the 2 genius' impart.

we should but then again we shouldn't

‘First mover advantage’, in business/marketing parlance this often means to be the first mover in a market place with a product or service. This would mean that the first mover would have a unique or novelty to offer vis-à-vis an existing service or product. The discrepancy arises when we think that we are the only folks to have thought about this unique or novel idea.
The illusion can be extrapolated in that since it is a unique idea, the key to cash in on this would be to keep the business plan a big secret. I mean if the plan is out, the idea is bust and we are where we started with probably no additional moolah. Fortunately none of these ideas are really unique, I mean the odds that you have stumbled onto something that no other fellow on the globe has yet stumbled upon is unique, but the chances that you are the only one thinking about this idea and no other fellow has thought about that idea is arrogance.
The crux of this thinking, lies not in the idea itself, but the probable proposition that we are so wrapped up on the unique idea thinking that we think this idea would perish if divulged so we keep it all wrapped up in shrink packaging in our head or on the other hand we are paranoid enough to think that it can be cribbed.
The truth is that the idea itself does not make the business. Any veteran business person knows a part of the idea is the execution and luck. I mean by luck, being in the right place doing the right thing at the right time, the chances are pretty bleak that all the right things will happen but then who knows it does, and that’s why it is called 'luck', and so it often appropriately referred to as 'dumb luck'.
Please note, have limited this line of thought to 3 dimensions, (right thing - right place - right time), I don’t know how the physicists would look at ‘dumb luck’, in anywhere from 4 to 10 dimensions, which makes the chances of luck by itself improbable, but then it is probable and it still is dumbfounding.
For those of us who disagree in shrouding the business plan in secrecy;
1. Think on research, the key would be to divulge research findings, so if there are errors these are pointed out right away by the research community. An extension would be if the research is right, then the right step would be to publicize it so the research can be extrapolated to some benefit through private/public funding for a benefit.
2. open source software: A developer allows users to use the software freely, and if there are any bugs he calls for a feedback. A cornucopia of users with diverse backgrounds are looking at the same information in a million ways, while if the developer had kept the software to himself/herself he would be look at the software through his own tunnel vision. (Linux)
3. ‘wikipedia’- a large collaborative knowledge effort on information. There is a chance that the information can be prejudiced by a collaborator as there are no filters or screens on the collaborative, but I would like to think that this is a hitch which will be flecked out soon.
4. If truly the first mover advantage holds the key then market leaders today would be the inventors of the idea themselves.
A. Google was not the first search engine.
B. Nikon is not the first camera maker.
C. Nokia is not the first cellular phone maker.

We have a caveat though, Intellectual Property.
IP works on keeping an intellectual know how or tech walled up restraining access.
Intellectual Property was actually created to promote the creation of more ideas but what it does is create artificial scarcity. It gives power to a few and we are aware how power in the hands of a few pans out.
We have had a Magna Carta that restricted the power of the monarchy precisely on the similar grounds of too much vested power, perhaps we need something akin that can restrict the power on IP.
Maybe this will be so in time, if monarchy is gone and all that stands today is a notional figurehead, there is a strong likelihood that IP would disappear too.

We could look at IP in the light of socialism and this is one of the chief arguments towards an egalitarian society. Essentially Socialism is no more and no less than a criticism of the idea of property in the light of the public good. Society, therefore, is from its beginning a mitigation of ownership. Ownership is rooted in our instincts than in our reasons, and just as in the past when communities grew, man realised that he couldn't have the mountain, the valley, the stream and the plain all in his land, ergo the old instincts brought forth reason and man was ready to compromise with his neighbour on ownership. Man was ready to do this as he felt he wanted to settle down live socially and not have to fight for square inch, to an extent the old war of the continents were in a way an expression of the instinct of owndership, but as man has begun to settle down, he finds it a nuisance. Largely this is on account of developments, education and economics. Developments and education are levelling the field for countries to trade freely. These changes are reducing disparity, what we have to do is identify the caveat as we have the benefit of history.

IP is a right of instinct, in time reason will displace instinct, rather its ownership will be mitigated just as we have lived on the priniciples of compromise in a community.

ordinary and novelty

There are two kinds of equilibriums in an environment. To an extent both work to accomplish a higher purpose, however it is interesting to note that they work in opposition to each other and they do not work in tandem. If one is working the other is dormant and vice versa.

Under settled conditions there is no encouragement for novelties; they do not develop, they are suppressed; what is best adapted is already there. Under novel conditions it is the ordinary that suffers, and the novelty that may have a better chance to survive and establish itself.

Since we people are to an extent a reflection of our environment, we can surmise that our minds reflect this state of equilibrium. We express this equilibrium at work and at home, with parents and friends, in business operations and creativity.

Some of our relations are at a status quo while others are being encouraged to evolve to a new plane.

perspective - solar system

Some people have a stupendous ability to put things in perspective.
The unique ability to not only focus on an issue or a range of issues but also to zoom in to details and out for perspective, multiple times making sense of the environment.

The below passage just puts in perspective our solar system.

If, then, we represent our earth as a little ball of one inch diameter, the sun would be a big globe nine feet across and 323 yards away, that is about a fifth of a mile, four or five minutes’ walking.
The moon would be a small pea two feet and a half from the world.
Between earth and sun there would be the two inner planets, Mercury and Venus, at distances of one hundred and twenty-five and two hundred and fifty yards from the sun.
All round and about these bodies there would be emptiness until you came to Mars, a hundred and seventy-five feet beyond the earth; Jupiter nearly a mile away, a foot in diameter; Saturn, a little smaller, two miles off; Uranus four miles off and Neptune six miles off.
Then nothingness and nothingness except for small particles and drifting scraps of attenuated vapour for thousands of miles. The nearest star to earth on this scale would be 40,000 miles away.

H G Wells, A short History of the World, 1922
p.s: "War of the Worlds" was one of his fiction works.

The author adds a comment further which is remarkable.

"For in all this enormous vacancy of space we know certainly of life only upon the surface of our earth. It does not penetrate much more than three miles down into the 4,000 miles that separate us from the centre of our globe, and it does not reach more than five miles above its surface. Apparently all the limitlessness of space is otherwise empty and dead."

I mention remarkable, for all that insight and perspective he didn't quiet think there is God - a creator. He makes an implicit mention of this fact in this work.

It is pretty surprising that H G Wells didn't think it reasonable that we were all created, which brings me to a jest:

Man has finally been able to gather all wisdom and understanding present in this world. I mean, man has finally been able to figure out 'genesis' and he now knows how to create 'life'.
So being a son of Adam, he calls on God to exude his ability.

Man: God, we have finally figured out how to create.

God: Is that so? Well, please feel free to demonstrate.

Man, absolutely ecstatic that he is going to put God in his place, finally.

Man: Ok, I am ready, give me some mud and I can begin.

God: Make your own mud and you can begin!

regret gets you broke

Research on inaction inertia has shown that when people forgo a profitable opportunity (buying a $10 shirt for $2), they tend to forgo a subsequent opportunity that is somewhat less profitable (buying the same shirt for $7) because they believe that accepting the second opportunity will cause them to regret having refused the first.

Having experienced the above sentiments and feeling totally lame, these people will begin to avoid the anticipation of regret.
To avoid the anticipation of regret people will tend to overpay for consumer goods, to negotiate ineffectively, and to overvalue the ability to change their minds. Clearly, people pay a steep price to avoid future regrets.

I personally know relatives who fit this category to the dot.
They will go all over town, bargain for every rupee and finally not buy anything.
The next day, they will walk into the nearest store and buy some product for twice the price in contrast to their search the previous day for the product at half the price.

I reckon as long as people can get a good night sleep and keep on chugging being a dolt, research can always be qualified.

Come 1st or 3rd.

Some research queried if margins of loss can influence the experience of regret.

In 1995 researchers studied the facial expressions of Olympic athletes and found that bronze medalists (who missed a gold medal by a wide margin) appeared happier than silver medalists (who missed a gold medal by a narrow margin).

That study suggests that margins of loss can have an impact on emotional experience.


Well if you can't come first come third, unless you fancy being a manic depressive.

marketing baloney qualified

In a Dilbert cartoon, the boss explains, “We can’t compete on price, features, service, or quality. That leaves fraud — which we’ll call marketing!”

Marketing is not saying what it is not nor is it saying what is.
We make this task easier on the marketer given our conscious or unconscious limitation. The perplexing thing about this is that at one level we as consumers are not aware of this and at the other level our stated beliefs or attitudes could be different from our unconscious attitude and beliefs.

1. Forming preferences can be easily done but we cannot easily explain how. I know how to ride a bike, but how do I explain my ability to ride a bike. What this means is an automatic behaviors is disrupted when people analyze and decompose the automatic response. As long as the automatic behavior is not disrupted, response to stimuli is succinct and clear. Marekters try and keep these automatic response unbroken. (Ice-cream are packed in square cartons/boxes, when packaged in round plastic containers, sales drop, consumers just prefer the cubes to cylinders)

2. Implicit Associations: Associations that are formed in our subconscious. Associations that are in our conscious can be different from the ones in our subconscious. Our attitudes or associations in our conscious can be self stated or evolved depending on our environment however instinctively our associations would revert to our subconscious when provided with a stimulus. Generally we are stereotyped in our subconscious.
(If you tweak the 7-Up color to a slight yellow from the green, consumers feel the taste is tweaked too)

I reckon there could be more facts and research that can assist any marketer in making a monkey of the consumer, but I guess for now it can save us some embarrassment knowing just these 2.

As a species, we tend to think we are independent individuals who make purchase and lifestyle decisions, after filtering out undue influences. This is baloney.

Consultants/Advisors

1. An individual who is able to capture the phenomenon from start to finish.
2. Should have the diction to explain this phenomenon to another
3. Should have had empirical experience in the concerned phenomenon.

Rites of Passage

People throughout the world have heightened emotions during times of major life changes. These stressful changes may be physiological or social in nature. They are usually connected with personal transitions between important stages that occur during our lives. These transitions are generally emotionally charged -they are life crises.

Lately, media has brought to the fore incidences of violence in our country, maybe this has been prevalent for sometime, but has got media attention lately, but what maybe of importance to note is that these incidents are localized to a particular state in India – Bihar and taking place in short span of time. In this past week, cases of violence, brutality, and apathy have risen like we have not previously witnessed. This could be on account of an increased media coverage in the state or if we can believe the media these events are indeed not just incidental, but are being covered by the media in earnest response to make the rest of the country aware.
10 killed by Mob for killing – 12th September
3 thieves blinded on apprehension – 11th September
2 kids age 12 and 13, physically assaulted for stealing – 11th September
1500 villagers stripped in search of rapist/murdrer – 11th September
100 girls have gone on strike, as food provided by school was insect infested – 11th September
It may be of consequence to compare these incidents in Bihar with another state.
"The local population is now totally disillusioned in relation to what the government and the coalition has been trying to do," "They see no change in their daily lives. They still live in extreme poverty. And this is only getting worse. And the only thing they see coming at them is forces destroying their livelihoods -- and kids and women being killed."
The afore comment is pertaining to Afghanistan.
The situation in the state of Bihar in India and that of Afghanistan has congruence and similarities. There seems to be a general break down of the law, as the people feel that the established law does not give them the security to live in a community. In both situations, the people feel the law is not identifying the outlaw. In both situations there seems to be a divide between the people and the system that has been established.
The outlaw is being identified as the system. The system being incapable or condoned in not identifying the outlaw, as a result the common citizen is mobilizing acts of violence on the outlaw. In Bihar the outlaw is identified as the perpetuator of the act, while in Afghanistan the outlaw is the very coalition forces trying to bring about some order. This is what the media is covering, I feel they are missing on the stimulus of the action, they are focusing on the response and getting the rest of the country and the world community to focus on the response.
The moot point is not the random acts of violence but in realizing that the system is not making a change to the daily lives of these citizens. We have no precedents but we do have parallel acts in history, understanding the ‘rites of passage’ could probably help us address the situation better rather than an action by deploying larger forces in these areas.
On the contrary, governments in either county are following a pattern where they are looking a larger deployment of armed forces to control the situation. We may not require so much an army or police but an anthropologist or sociologist to cull the present predicament.

fill the gaps

The polical power of the occupier [the US] is collapsing rapidly. Of course, we are prepared to fill the gap. - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of Iran - Hinting at a power vacuum in Iraq.

Makes one wonder, are we just filling and vacating places in this life? Egyptians replaced by the Assyrians who were replaced by the Babylonians who were replaced by the Greeks who were replaced by the Romans.

Poses one to concede, what the 17 year war-conflict was between Iran and Iraq? The latter is virtually non existent. And probably in the near future the former would be too.

Time does make us look at our actions more sensibly; implicitly we apprear pretty stupid doing the things we do, today.

All in the same boat.....

Most of my peers and friends are pretty clear on what they want.
And there is a fair chance that they could be wrong.

I think I can with a fair degree of objectivity be pretty sure on what I don't want. And there is a fair chance that I could still be wrong.

I guess that puts all of us in the same boat.

Maybe freewill is just an illusion.
Except for the ones who get their want and choice in life.

Commie Comic (the week)

The wife of a very corrupt Communist party minister dies and encounters Yama (god of death).
An array of clocks adorn the wall behind Yama's reception counter.

The wife quizzes on what all these clocks depict. Yama's assistant retorts that these are 'Lie Clocks' recording the lies uttered by humans on the earth.

The clock with the static needle pertains to Gautama Buddha. He had no lies.

Lincoln had just 3 lies to his credit or discredit with the needle earnestly at three.

The wife enquires of the clock pertaining to her husband.

The assistant replies, that is in Yama's office, it is used as his ceiling fan.

endemic to Kerala - by Minu Ittyipe (Columnist)

The habit of potholes popping up all over Kochi’s tar roads is a permanent feature of our heavenly landscape.
And so the habit of strikes. They are now embedded ineluctably in the Mallu genes and the off springs holler
“Inquilab” as soon as the umbilical chord is cut. (The protest at the doctor’s rough handling.) Today one habit protests another.

The Bus federation of Kochi has called for a strike against the potholes of Kochi.
Bad for the tyres and so all buses are off the roads.

Mercy Mayor of Kochi has reiterated that the garbage situation will
facilitate the onset of plague. Garbage is piled sky high.
Vector indices are high. And what does she do? Waits patiently for the disease to strike.

To add to such habitual pain. The rains have inundated the land.
We could blame it all on the devil.

And Kerala has a new label for tourism brochures: One hell of a place.

Star Trek jape

Captain Kirk: Okay Scotty, Beam me up.

(Dutifully Scotty (a.k.a Scott) complies. Captain Kirk is beamed up to the USS Enterprise.)

Captain Kirk: Heh, heh, very funny now my clothes.

subterfuge

Friedrich Hayek offers us an astute insight into the idea of community: "What makes a community is common recognition of the same rules and laws". In this context it is interesting to note the rise and proliferation of the law as known to us folks.

Moses was provided the law for a set of precedents. He not only handed this down to the people but went further to decentralize this function, by dispensing the execution of the law through elders of each tribe.

In cases where a law could not be applied as a case could be different from the applicable precedent, the case was referred to Moses. It is interesting to note in areas of new cases, a ruling generated was made to agree with the tenet of the original law provided, if no precedents were available a new directive was set but based on the basic tenet.

Today, our law system is framed and executed in much the same way.

Private law keeps us off our neighbour’s back and vice versa. We honour contracts, we keep off his backyard, we respect his privacy in effect we live peaceably with each other on account of private law.

Public law governs the relationship between the government and the people. Constitutional law, administrative law and criminal law are sub-divisions of public law.

In the old days, the sovereigns used to oversee the law but kept themselves above the law. Since that time, a level playing field has been created for the ruler and the ruled in the parliamentary system. We have private law that governs people and public law that governs the relationship between government and people, however we still can’t get our government by the law for incompetence. Take for instance, roads, electricity, water, cleanliness, medical facilities.

Subterfuge is a powerful force today and governments use it. I mean this is deft play, governments are inclusive to the mechanics of the law, but seldom are they held accountable.

"The main foundations of every state, new states as well as ancient or composite ones, are good laws and good arms you cannot have good laws without good arms, and where there are good arms, good laws inevitably follow." - Niccolo Machiavelli.

Our public laws need to be accountable, defined and quantified. It has to be better armed for governments to be accountable by the law and by its citizens.

1-2-3 agreement and more...

When no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq, countries that had initially supported US and UK for the war on terrorism did a volte-face. In this hullabaloo, Luxembourg had chosen to remark on the inconsistency in US and British assessments of Iraq. The then Premier of France, Jacques Chirac remarked on the faux pas "They lost a perfect opportunity to keep quiet."

Was it really about W.O.M.D or the oil? I mean the contract with Kuwait was USD 30 per barrel for getting the Arab folks their country back. Today oil is at USD 75 per barrel. A few months ago it was USD 92 per barrel.

Anyway, our present vexation with the 1-2-3 agreement is much the same ordeal.

The leftists in our country are crying foul over the deal like Luxembourg had on WOMD. Well it does give the Leftists some political mileage and the satisfaction that every strategic decision made by the center will be carefully re-viewed. It maybe of consequence to note that the cry was raised just to get your attention the decision has not changed, but the people will remember the hue and cry.

The real nuclear deal is to balance the Chinese on this side of the continent besides off course it does provide a clean source of energy. I mean our billion market balances their billion market. The US is China's consumer market, India is the US's consumer market. The Chinese are investing their surplus in low yield US treasuries. The US government is going to use this Chinese money to stimulate growth, investment, jobs domestically and assist economies that will help US companies. It will continue to invest in capital markets which can generate better returns than the yield it is paying the Chinese.
In other words it will do what it is doing now with Kuwait Oil, using a USD 30 per barrel crude oil and selling it for USD 75 per barrel.

Supplementary to the commercial aspect is the military aspect; the US wants India to balance China. Further still, India is a nuclear power, its is about the bomb and getting on the security council like the 5 other member who are all nuclear capable. The Americans aren't going to come out and say this in the open, they will have Pakistan, China, Iran the non proliferation community crying hoarse.

"No enterprise is more likely to succeed than one concealed from the enemy until it is ripe for execution." -Niccolo Machiavelli