Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Genius

There are 2 kinds of genius’ one kind makes the paper the other writes on the paper.
For the lesser mortals (c'est moi), we just use what the 2 genius' impart.

Monday, September 24, 2007

we should but then again we shouldn't

‘First mover advantage’, in business/marketing parlance this often means to be the first mover in a market place with a product or service. This would mean that the first mover would have a unique or novelty to offer vis-à-vis an existing service or product. The discrepancy arises when we think that we are the only folks to have thought about this unique or novel idea.
The illusion can be extrapolated in that since it is a unique idea, the key to cash in on this would be to keep the business plan a big secret. I mean if the plan is out, the idea is bust and we are where we started with probably no additional moolah. Fortunately none of these ideas are really unique, I mean the odds that you have stumbled onto something that no other fellow on the globe has yet stumbled upon is unique, but the chances that you are the only one thinking about this idea and no other fellow has thought about that idea is arrogance.
The crux of this thinking, lies not in the idea itself, but the probable proposition that we are so wrapped up on the unique idea thinking that we think this idea would perish if divulged so we keep it all wrapped up in shrink packaging in our head or on the other hand we are paranoid enough to think that it can be cribbed.
The truth is that the idea itself does not make the business. Any veteran business person knows a part of the idea is the execution and luck. I mean by luck, being in the right place doing the right thing at the right time, the chances are pretty bleak that all the right things will happen but then who knows it does, and that’s why it is called 'luck', and so it often appropriately referred to as 'dumb luck'.
Please note, have limited this line of thought to 3 dimensions, (right thing - right place - right time), I don’t know how the physicists would look at ‘dumb luck’, in anywhere from 4 to 10 dimensions, which makes the chances of luck by itself improbable, but then it is probable and it still is dumbfounding.
For those of us who disagree in shrouding the business plan in secrecy;
1. Think on research, the key would be to divulge research findings, so if there are errors these are pointed out right away by the research community. An extension would be if the research is right, then the right step would be to publicize it so the research can be extrapolated to some benefit through private/public funding for a benefit.
2. open source software: A developer allows users to use the software freely, and if there are any bugs he calls for a feedback. A cornucopia of users with diverse backgrounds are looking at the same information in a million ways, while if the developer had kept the software to himself/herself he would be look at the software through his own tunnel vision. (Linux)
3. ‘wikipedia’- a large collaborative knowledge effort on information. There is a chance that the information can be prejudiced by a collaborator as there are no filters or screens on the collaborative, but I would like to think that this is a hitch which will be flecked out soon.
4. If truly the first mover advantage holds the key then market leaders today would be the inventors of the idea themselves.
A. Google was not the first search engine.
B. Nikon is not the first camera maker.
C. Nokia is not the first cellular phone maker.

We have a caveat though, Intellectual Property.
IP works on keeping an intellectual know how or tech walled up restraining access.
Intellectual Property was actually created to promote the creation of more ideas but what it does is create artificial scarcity. It gives power to a few and we are aware how power in the hands of a few pans out.
We have had a Magna Carta that restricted the power of the monarchy precisely on the similar grounds of too much vested power, perhaps we need something akin that can restrict the power on IP.
Maybe this will be so in time, if monarchy is gone and all that stands today is a notional figurehead, there is a strong likelihood that IP would disappear too.

We could look at IP in the light of socialism and this is one of the chief arguments towards an egalitarian society. Essentially Socialism is no more and no less than a criticism of the idea of property in the light of the public good. Society, therefore, is from its beginning a mitigation of ownership. Ownership is rooted in our instincts than in our reasons, and just as in the past when communities grew, man realised that he couldn't have the mountain, the valley, the stream and the plain all in his land, ergo the old instincts brought forth reason and man was ready to compromise with his neighbour on ownership. Man was ready to do this as he felt he wanted to settle down live socially and not have to fight for square inch, to an extent the old war of the continents were in a way an expression of the instinct of owndership, but as man has begun to settle down, he finds it a nuisance. Largely this is on account of developments, education and economics. Developments and education are levelling the field for countries to trade freely. These changes are reducing disparity, what we have to do is identify the caveat as we have the benefit of history.

IP is a right of instinct, in time reason will displace instinct, rather its ownership will be mitigated just as we have lived on the priniciples of compromise in a community.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

ordinary and novelty

There are two kinds of equilibriums in an environment. To an extent both work to accomplish a higher purpose, however it is interesting to note that they work in opposition to each other and they do not work in tandem. If one is working the other is dormant and vice versa.

Under settled conditions there is no encouragement for novelties; they do not develop, they are suppressed; what is best adapted is already there. Under novel conditions it is the ordinary that suffers, and the novelty that may have a better chance to survive and establish itself.

Since we people are to an extent a reflection of our environment, we can surmise that our minds reflect this state of equilibrium. We express this equilibrium at work and at home, with parents and friends, in business operations and creativity.

Some of our relations are at a status quo while others are being encouraged to evolve to a new plane.

Monday, September 17, 2007

perspective - solar system

Some people have a stupendous ability to put things in perspective.
The unique ability to not only focus on an issue or a range of issues but also to zoom in to details and out for perspective, multiple times making sense of the environment.

The below passage just puts in perspective our solar system.

If, then, we represent our earth as a little ball of one inch diameter, the sun would be a big globe nine feet across and 323 yards away, that is about a fifth of a mile, four or five minutes’ walking.
The moon would be a small pea two feet and a half from the world.
Between earth and sun there would be the two inner planets, Mercury and Venus, at distances of one hundred and twenty-five and two hundred and fifty yards from the sun.
All round and about these bodies there would be emptiness until you came to Mars, a hundred and seventy-five feet beyond the earth; Jupiter nearly a mile away, a foot in diameter; Saturn, a little smaller, two miles off; Uranus four miles off and Neptune six miles off.
Then nothingness and nothingness except for small particles and drifting scraps of attenuated vapour for thousands of miles. The nearest star to earth on this scale would be 40,000 miles away.

H G Wells, A short History of the World, 1922
p.s: "War of the Worlds" was one of his fiction works.

The author adds a comment further which is remarkable.

"For in all this enormous vacancy of space we know certainly of life only upon the surface of our earth. It does not penetrate much more than three miles down into the 4,000 miles that separate us from the centre of our globe, and it does not reach more than five miles above its surface. Apparently all the limitlessness of space is otherwise empty and dead."

I mention remarkable, for all that insight and perspective he didn't quiet think there is God - a creator. He makes an implicit mention of this fact in this work.

It is pretty surprising that H G Wells didn't think it reasonable that we were all created, which brings me to a jest:

Man has finally been able to gather all wisdom and understanding present in this world. I mean, man has finally been able to figure out 'genesis' and he now knows how to create 'life'.
So being a son of Adam, he calls on God to exude his ability.

Man: God, we have finally figured out how to create.

God: Is that so? Well, please feel free to demonstrate.

Man, absolutely ecstatic that he is going to put God in his place, finally.

Man: Ok, I am ready, give me some mud and I can begin.

God: Make your own mud and you can begin!

Sunday, September 16, 2007

regret gets you broke

Research on inaction inertia has shown that when people forgo a profitable opportunity (buying a $10 shirt for $2), they tend to forgo a subsequent opportunity that is somewhat less profitable (buying the same shirt for $7) because they believe that accepting the second opportunity will cause them to regret having refused the first.

Having experienced the above sentiments and feeling totally lame, these people will begin to avoid the anticipation of regret.
To avoid the anticipation of regret people will tend to overpay for consumer goods, to negotiate ineffectively, and to overvalue the ability to change their minds. Clearly, people pay a steep price to avoid future regrets.

I personally know relatives who fit this category to the dot.
They will go all over town, bargain for every rupee and finally not buy anything.
The next day, they will walk into the nearest store and buy some product for twice the price in contrast to their search the previous day for the product at half the price.

I reckon as long as people can get a good night sleep and keep on chugging being a dolt, research can always be qualified.

Come 1st or 3rd.

Some research queried if margins of loss can influence the experience of regret.

In 1995 researchers studied the facial expressions of Olympic athletes and found that bronze medalists (who missed a gold medal by a wide margin) appeared happier than silver medalists (who missed a gold medal by a narrow margin).

That study suggests that margins of loss can have an impact on emotional experience.


Well if you can't come first come third, unless you fancy being a manic depressive.

marketing baloney qualified

In a Dilbert cartoon, the boss explains, “We can’t compete on price, features, service, or quality. That leaves fraud — which we’ll call marketing!”

Marketing is not saying what it is not nor is it saying what is.
We make this task easier on the marketer given our conscious or unconscious limitation. The perplexing thing about this is that at one level we as consumers are not aware of this and at the other level our stated beliefs or attitudes could be different from our unconscious attitude and beliefs.

1. Forming preferences can be easily done but we cannot easily explain how. I know how to ride a bike, but how do I explain my ability to ride a bike. What this means is an automatic behaviors is disrupted when people analyze and decompose the automatic response. As long as the automatic behavior is not disrupted, response to stimuli is succinct and clear. Marekters try and keep these automatic response unbroken. (Ice-cream are packed in square cartons/boxes, when packaged in round plastic containers, sales drop, consumers just prefer the cubes to cylinders)

2. Implicit Associations: Associations that are formed in our subconscious. Associations that are in our conscious can be different from the ones in our subconscious. Our attitudes or associations in our conscious can be self stated or evolved depending on our environment however instinctively our associations would revert to our subconscious when provided with a stimulus. Generally we are stereotyped in our subconscious.
(If you tweak the 7-Up color to a slight yellow from the green, consumers feel the taste is tweaked too)

I reckon there could be more facts and research that can assist any marketer in making a monkey of the consumer, but I guess for now it can save us some embarrassment knowing just these 2.

As a species, we tend to think we are independent individuals who make purchase and lifestyle decisions, after filtering out undue influences. This is baloney.

Consultants/Advisors

1. An individual who is able to capture the phenomenon from start to finish.
2. Should have the diction to explain this phenomenon to another
3. Should have had empirical experience in the concerned phenomenon.

Rites of Passage

People throughout the world have heightened emotions during times of major life changes. These stressful changes may be physiological or social in nature. They are usually connected with personal transitions between important stages that occur during our lives. These transitions are generally emotionally charged -they are life crises.

Lately, media has brought to the fore incidences of violence in our country, maybe this has been prevalent for sometime, but has got media attention lately, but what maybe of importance to note is that these incidents are localized to a particular state in India – Bihar and taking place in short span of time. In this past week, cases of violence, brutality, and apathy have risen like we have not previously witnessed. This could be on account of an increased media coverage in the state or if we can believe the media these events are indeed not just incidental, but are being covered by the media in earnest response to make the rest of the country aware.
10 killed by Mob for killing – 12th September
3 thieves blinded on apprehension – 11th September
2 kids age 12 and 13, physically assaulted for stealing – 11th September
1500 villagers stripped in search of rapist/murdrer – 11th September
100 girls have gone on strike, as food provided by school was insect infested – 11th September
It may be of consequence to compare these incidents in Bihar with another state.
"The local population is now totally disillusioned in relation to what the government and the coalition has been trying to do," "They see no change in their daily lives. They still live in extreme poverty. And this is only getting worse. And the only thing they see coming at them is forces destroying their livelihoods -- and kids and women being killed."
The afore comment is pertaining to Afghanistan.
The situation in the state of Bihar in India and that of Afghanistan has congruence and similarities. There seems to be a general break down of the law, as the people feel that the established law does not give them the security to live in a community. In both situations, the people feel the law is not identifying the outlaw. In both situations there seems to be a divide between the people and the system that has been established.
The outlaw is being identified as the system. The system being incapable or condoned in not identifying the outlaw, as a result the common citizen is mobilizing acts of violence on the outlaw. In Bihar the outlaw is identified as the perpetuator of the act, while in Afghanistan the outlaw is the very coalition forces trying to bring about some order. This is what the media is covering, I feel they are missing on the stimulus of the action, they are focusing on the response and getting the rest of the country and the world community to focus on the response.
The moot point is not the random acts of violence but in realizing that the system is not making a change to the daily lives of these citizens. We have no precedents but we do have parallel acts in history, understanding the ‘rites of passage’ could probably help us address the situation better rather than an action by deploying larger forces in these areas.
On the contrary, governments in either county are following a pattern where they are looking a larger deployment of armed forces to control the situation. We may not require so much an army or police but an anthropologist or sociologist to cull the present predicament.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

fill the gaps

The polical power of the occupier [the US] is collapsing rapidly. Of course, we are prepared to fill the gap. - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of Iran - Hinting at a power vacuum in Iraq.

Makes one wonder, are we just filling and vacating places in this life? Egyptians replaced by the Assyrians who were replaced by the Babylonians who were replaced by the Greeks who were replaced by the Romans.

Poses one to concede, what the 17 year war-conflict was between Iran and Iraq? The latter is virtually non existent. And probably in the near future the former would be too.

Time does make us look at our actions more sensibly; implicitly we apprear pretty stupid doing the things we do, today.

All in the same boat.....

Most of my peers and friends are pretty clear on what they want.
And there is a fair chance that they could be wrong.

I think I can with a fair degree of objectivity be pretty sure on what I don't want. And there is a fair chance that I could still be wrong.

I guess that puts all of us in the same boat.

Maybe freewill is just an illusion.
Except for the ones who get their want and choice in life.

Commie Comic (the week)

The wife of a very corrupt Communist party minister dies and encounters Yama (god of death).
An array of clocks adorn the wall behind Yama's reception counter.

The wife quizzes on what all these clocks depict. Yama's assistant retorts that these are 'Lie Clocks' recording the lies uttered by humans on the earth.

The clock with the static needle pertains to Gautama Buddha. He had no lies.

Lincoln had just 3 lies to his credit or discredit with the needle earnestly at three.

The wife enquires of the clock pertaining to her husband.

The assistant replies, that is in Yama's office, it is used as his ceiling fan.

endemic to Kerala - by Minu Ittyipe (Columnist)

The habit of potholes popping up all over Kochi’s tar roads is a permanent feature of our heavenly landscape.
And so the habit of strikes. They are now embedded ineluctably in the Mallu genes and the off springs holler
“Inquilab” as soon as the umbilical chord is cut. (The protest at the doctor’s rough handling.) Today one habit protests another.

The Bus federation of Kochi has called for a strike against the potholes of Kochi.
Bad for the tyres and so all buses are off the roads.

Mercy Mayor of Kochi has reiterated that the garbage situation will
facilitate the onset of plague. Garbage is piled sky high.
Vector indices are high. And what does she do? Waits patiently for the disease to strike.

To add to such habitual pain. The rains have inundated the land.
We could blame it all on the devil.

And Kerala has a new label for tourism brochures: One hell of a place.

Star Trek jape

Captain Kirk: Okay Scotty, Beam me up.

(Dutifully Scotty (a.k.a Scott) complies. Captain Kirk is beamed up to the USS Enterprise.)

Captain Kirk: Heh, heh, very funny now my clothes.

subterfuge

Friedrich Hayek offers us an astute insight into the idea of community: "What makes a community is common recognition of the same rules and laws". In this context it is interesting to note the rise and proliferation of the law as known to us folks.

Moses was provided the law for a set of precedents. He not only handed this down to the people but went further to decentralize this function, by dispensing the execution of the law through elders of each tribe.

In cases where a law could not be applied as a case could be different from the applicable precedent, the case was referred to Moses. It is interesting to note in areas of new cases, a ruling generated was made to agree with the tenet of the original law provided, if no precedents were available a new directive was set but based on the basic tenet.

Today, our law system is framed and executed in much the same way.

Private law keeps us off our neighbour’s back and vice versa. We honour contracts, we keep off his backyard, we respect his privacy in effect we live peaceably with each other on account of private law.

Public law governs the relationship between the government and the people. Constitutional law, administrative law and criminal law are sub-divisions of public law.

In the old days, the sovereigns used to oversee the law but kept themselves above the law. Since that time, a level playing field has been created for the ruler and the ruled in the parliamentary system. We have private law that governs people and public law that governs the relationship between government and people, however we still can’t get our government by the law for incompetence. Take for instance, roads, electricity, water, cleanliness, medical facilities.

Subterfuge is a powerful force today and governments use it. I mean this is deft play, governments are inclusive to the mechanics of the law, but seldom are they held accountable.

"The main foundations of every state, new states as well as ancient or composite ones, are good laws and good arms you cannot have good laws without good arms, and where there are good arms, good laws inevitably follow." - Niccolo Machiavelli.

Our public laws need to be accountable, defined and quantified. It has to be better armed for governments to be accountable by the law and by its citizens.

1-2-3 agreement and more...

When no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq, countries that had initially supported US and UK for the war on terrorism did a volte-face. In this hullabaloo, Luxembourg had chosen to remark on the inconsistency in US and British assessments of Iraq. The then Premier of France, Jacques Chirac remarked on the faux pas "They lost a perfect opportunity to keep quiet."

Was it really about W.O.M.D or the oil? I mean the contract with Kuwait was USD 30 per barrel for getting the Arab folks their country back. Today oil is at USD 75 per barrel. A few months ago it was USD 92 per barrel.

Anyway, our present vexation with the 1-2-3 agreement is much the same ordeal.

The leftists in our country are crying foul over the deal like Luxembourg had on WOMD. Well it does give the Leftists some political mileage and the satisfaction that every strategic decision made by the center will be carefully re-viewed. It maybe of consequence to note that the cry was raised just to get your attention the decision has not changed, but the people will remember the hue and cry.

The real nuclear deal is to balance the Chinese on this side of the continent besides off course it does provide a clean source of energy. I mean our billion market balances their billion market. The US is China's consumer market, India is the US's consumer market. The Chinese are investing their surplus in low yield US treasuries. The US government is going to use this Chinese money to stimulate growth, investment, jobs domestically and assist economies that will help US companies. It will continue to invest in capital markets which can generate better returns than the yield it is paying the Chinese.
In other words it will do what it is doing now with Kuwait Oil, using a USD 30 per barrel crude oil and selling it for USD 75 per barrel.

Supplementary to the commercial aspect is the military aspect; the US wants India to balance China. Further still, India is a nuclear power, its is about the bomb and getting on the security council like the 5 other member who are all nuclear capable. The Americans aren't going to come out and say this in the open, they will have Pakistan, China, Iran the non proliferation community crying hoarse.

"No enterprise is more likely to succeed than one concealed from the enemy until it is ripe for execution." -Niccolo Machiavelli

the unseemingly subtle

We had finished a sumptuous meal and I was going through some pictures of the 55th Wedding Anniversary of the host couple. We had missed the anniversary as we were out of town, so we were looking through the photographs taken on the anniversary, some people we recognized and some we didn’t. The event was a monumentalization for their kids and grand kids and these pictures were communicating and capturing the moment.

I was browsing a snap of the elderly couple and the elderly gentleman remarked, “Look at her, doesn’t she look lovely?” referring to his wife whom he has been wedded to for 55 years.

I think he was reminiscing his past at that moment and he goes on further to say, I quote.

“What am I that she married me”, “I am a nobody”.

I would have presumed that the law of diminishing marginal utility would hold here.

And here was a person who turned the tables on the economic law. Not to reduce our human relations to economic laws and assumptions, but if we juxtapose the companion to a good or service, the law states that we would put high value to its utility in the beginning this value would diminish in time.

And here I found a gentleman at 85 who put me to wonder.

This elderly gentleman was able to turn the law around. Marginal utility assumes that people are guided by their own self interest when determining marginal utility. What this means is a person will put a high value for what accrues to him/her, the next highest value to that what is the next best thing to him/her and so forth. Correspondingly, familiarity would reduce its value in time. However, self-interest has to be present for the law to work.

In this case, the octogenarian nullifies his self-interest, he puts the value on the companion than on himself.

In rendering value for the other more than himself he break the law - albeit he is unaware of this.

I think the elderly gentleman reinforced something very subtle.

the seemingly trivial..

Have a copious collection of stamps. For us kids at that time, philately was accessible and expedient, and it seemed to be a cinch.

I grew over philately in college. The next hobby I fell upon was collecting mugs - specifically beer mugs. I had thought this was a suave thing to do as wasn't a hobby that every typical teen had. Albeit, I was a tad late in finding out that getting beer mugs isn't as easy as going down to a pub and buying beer mugs.

Unfortunately it dubiously bestows upon one as a bibulous teen.

I guess family friends who came over home and logically presumed that if I was collecting beer mugs I would be drinking beer. In a manner of speaking the logic would be, if you stay too long with a horse you start smelling like a horse. If you smell like a horse you are a horse. People often suffer from the dubious distinction of dyslexic perceptions.

No matter how credulous it may seem, but if you keep hearing drivel you will believe it to be true. Take for instance Television soaps; I happen to see a discussion on whether television soaps reflect reality. The question posed was are TV soaps reflecting reality, as these soaps being aired on Indian TV depict some fracas or skirmish between daughter-in-laws and mother-in-laws. These soaps portray the inordinate lengths each go to vindicate some eccentric cause or the other. The reason this topic drew a discussion is on account of the increasing viewer-ship of these soaps. I mean these viewers would be empathizers with the programs for ratings to go up which got our conspiracy theorists thinking is this empathy on account of a reflection of the actual reality in the environment. In other words are the daughter and mother-in-laws at loggerheads in real life.

To this, one of the panel members, an eminent actress turned producer of TV sops commented. "We are in the business of making profit. We make programs that make profit." What she means is making profits means giving viewers what they want. The producers don't filter the real from the unreal - I mean that is democracy but a tad irresponsible.

I was in a similar disposition, I chose beer mugs as a hobby, but what got in the fore was whether I was imbibing any of the alcoholic beverage.

Coming back to my beer mugs, the final dregs was when a friend had the bright idea to present me with a poster.

It went something like "20 reasons to drink beer".

Out went the Beer mugs, the poster and my hobby.

Now, I just twiddle my thumbs.

The crux is I was censured but who censures the otherwise trivial

friends...

It takes no time to make friends when you are 10 and even lesser time to get comfortable.

The initiation could be viz; "Want to play cricket?" or "Do you have a pencil?" and you've are friends. Somewhere there is a connection that makes you perceive that the next time you want to play cricket you know whom to ask, or if you ever need a pencil, you know who can lend one to you.

This is generally involuntary standard protocol at this age, sometimes you don’t even know names, you just sport or jest with the other fellow.

As we get older, we change those involuntary standard protocols to deliberate non-standard protocols.

Back to school, then!!!!.

maggot brain

Maggot Brain - Funkadelic
The performance on this song by Eddie Hazel is startling.

This is his defining moment in music history and he is remembered much for this track.

He went on play nothing much of significance, and died at the age of 42.

Makes you wonder, he did all the wrong things and makes history with a definitive song, what he would have gone on to do if he did the right things.

There are a bunch of us who try to find that thing to do to make history. There are also the bunch of us who find that thing to do and bungle it.

personal effects and wanting..

As a kid when I was packed off to Boarding School, my mother had packed my vestments in a suitcase.

However, as a kid I can barely remember this. I mean I can remember I had a suitcase but at that age I could have survived on a backpack. At that age what you need is what you've got on you.

What I mean is, if you've got it on you, you need it, if not then you don't.

I used to be with a new water bottle every week. I had several chastisements and reminders but I still managed to lose a water bottle every week. Till my parents figured out that there isn't any point in giving him a water bottle if he doesn't seem to need it and thus care less about it.

As a boy, what we have got is a t-shirt, shorts and a pair of shoes and you were ready to wage war with the world. No toothbrush, no soap, no comb, no deodorant, no shaving set and all that jazz.

Today, you pack 20kgs on a flight and you are still wanting.