Sunday, February 22, 2009

product and era

every product comes of a certain age.
They have an indelible stamp of their beginnings.

cars have had a beginning in the 1900's.
guns in the 1800's.
Rail in the 1850's.
telephones in the 1900's.

they would have taken a modest investments in the beginning.
But as they scale upwards to supply to the masses the investments in capital is huge.

In 1903, Ford in setting up his initial assembly plant for the Model T was able to do so with USD 100,000.
In the 1960, Ford required USD 60 million of investments in its assembly line for the Mustang.
At that time its total investments was USD 6 billion.

Most products in their life cycle require more investments as the product begins to get sophisticated or specialized as in the case of cars.

Today a re jig on its assembly line for a new line of vehicles would require an humongous source of capital. The big 3 Detroit car makers Chrysler, Ford and GM are looking to the government for funds so as to sustain their product lines in a recessionary market.

What this could imply is that products can become sophisticated or specialised such that they can be rendered uneconomical in market downturns.
What one can also infer is that the product lines are outmoded in the current era.

Just as we find running an old car less fuel efficient or uneconomical, maybe products that require such kind of uneconomic investments should be laid to rest.
The fault lies with the car companies itself, to not have invested adequately to come up alternate or superior products to reduce investments in capital machinery.

Technology generally renders the traditional to be uneconomic or inefficient.
Locomotives outmoded the camel and horse.
Airlines outmoded Ocean Liners.

Markets generally align to newer cost effective alternatives.
In such a case, should companies that are outmoded be baled out.

Since there isn't as on date an alternative to the personal car, it looks unlikely.
And as long as cars are dependent on fossil fuels, a newer novel invention from them is highly unlikely.

in all likelihood the big 3 would be baled out by the government.

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