The Politics of Fear

If you’ve wondered how certain political groups retain power despite the fact that they have actually hampered development probably even hurt their own support base, this missive should be enlightening based on Gerard Miquel’s paper.

1. A ruler can maintain support from his ethnic followers even though he is extracting resources from them.
The reason is equilibrium; a leader steals resources not only from his own supporter group but extracts greater resources from the opposition group.
If the group in power decides to keep their leader, the stability of the regime maintains the status quo. If they decide to oust him they face a chaotic succession process in which they cannot guarantee the next leader will belong to their group.
Since their predicament under the leadership of a politician from another group is worse than under their own ruler, the latter can capture the support of his ethnic followers while reducing their utility.
This is the fundamental mechanism of the Politics of Fear: if succession is not fully controlled by supporters then they would be worse under the opposition leader, so the present supported leader tend to be not accountable to their own supporters.

2. A political party can enunciate on difference or exclusions based on religion, race, caste, social strata, social security, bloc of employees of govt. undertakings, etc - these fears of exclusion spread across groups and compound the ability of political leaders to extract resources.

Suppose group A has a strong comparative advantage in a particular activity that leaves it vulnerable to expropriation. Group A members thus know that a B leader would expropriate them. Hence Group A’s leaders will be able to extract large rents from their A supporters by virtue of the Politics of Fear. As noted
above, when leader A can tax his supporters heavily, he can also increase taxes on B citizens. This implies that B citizens also fear an A leader that cannot be reigned in by his A supporters. As a consequence, when a B leader captures power, his group will allow him to steal; group A’s fear of leadership change allows both A and B leaders to escape accountability.

This mechanism will allow any group leader to take advantage of the fear of leadership change that any group feels.

3. Ousting a leader initiates an uncertain process that involves potential change in the relative status of different groups. The ruler, if he falls, his relatives, friends, lieutenants, clients and followers also may fall, and the ensuing political disruption may threaten the political peace or status quo.